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France: Elections Race and Why Marine Le Pen Cannot Win

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Marine le Pen cannot win the second round of voting in France’s presidential elections because there are too many communists and nonwhite voters in that country to give her party the 50 percent needed to take the presidency.

Yesterday’s first round voting gave Le Pen 7,658,990 votes, or 21.43 percent of the vote. Emmanuel Macron polled 8,528,585 votes, or 23.86 percent of the vote.

Despite presenting himself as an “independent centrist,” Macron is in fact a long time member of the barely-disguised communist Socialist Party (PS), and only resigned from that party as a feint in April 2016, when he founded his “En Marche!” front organization.

Third-placed was conservative François Fillon from the Les Républicains, who polled 7,126,632 votes, or 19.94 percent of the vote. The far left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is actually a former Socialist Party senator and Member of the European Parliament for the “Parti de Gauche,” or the Left Party, campaigning under another front organization, “La France insoumise” (“Unbowed France”), polled 7,011,856, or 19.62 percent of the vote.

The Socialist Party’s candidate, Benoît Hamon, polled 2,268,838 votes, or 6.35 percent of the vote, while the conservative Nicolas Dupont-Aignan from the “Debout la France” (“Republic Arise”) party polled 1,689,686 votes, or 4.73 percent.

Jean Lassalle from the “Résistons!” party—a centrist regional party located in the south of France, polled 433,996 votes, or 1.21 percent.

Next was Philippe Poutou from the openly communist “New Anticapitalist Party,” (Poutou was a candidate for the Revolutionary Communist League in the 2007 legislative election), who polled 392,454 votes, or 1.10 percent.

Ninth-place went to François Asselineau from the conservative Popular Republican Union party, with 329,951 votes, or 0.92 percent.

Second to last came Nathalie Arthaud from the communist Trotskyite Lutte Ouvrière (Workers’ Struggle) party, which polled 231,660 votes, or 0.65 percent.

Last came Jacques Cheminade, from the broadly leftist financial reform party, Solidarity and Progress, who polled 65,076 votes, or 0.18 percent.

All together, these eleven candidates ensured a turnout of 78.23 percent, or 35,737,724 votes.

The second round of voting in the election, due on May 7, 2017, will see Le Pen and Macron go head to head to try and win 50 percent of the vote.

The cards are however stacked heavily against Le Pen.

To begin with, France has a population of about 65 million people (Bilan démographique 2010 — La population française atteint 65 millions d’habitants).

In 2010, 27.3 percent of babies born in France had at least one foreign-born parent and 23.9 percent had at least one parent born outside of Europe (parents born in overseas territories are considered as born in France). (Données détaillées des statistiques d’état civil sur les naissances en 2010.)

The French national institute of statistics INSEE estimated in 2008 that nearly 12 million foreign-born immigrants and their direct descendants (born in France) live in France, which represents almost 19 percent of the total population.

Because of the law which prevents the recording of race, it is nearly impossible to say how many of these are European.

However, in 2008, France granted citizenship to 137,000 persons, mostly from Morocco, Algeria, and Turkey, so it is not unreasonable to expect that the vast majority of that 19 percent figure will be non-European.

Allowing for statistical errors and traditional deliberate liberal establishment undercounting, it is safe to say that the nonwhite population of France is in the order of 20 percent and climbing.

In 2003, the French Ministry of the Interior estimated the total number of Muslims alone to be between five and six million, or between 8 and 10 percent of the population (“Religious Views and Beliefs Vary Greatly by Country, According to the Latest Financial Times/Harris Poll”).

This figure is already a decade out of date, so the Muslim population is likely to be in excess of 10 percent in France.

All of this means that least 10 percent of the “French” electorate—and likely more—is nonwhite, and the chances of them voting for Le Pen is minimal.

Therefore, Le Pen faces the enormous task of persuading at least 60 percent of the white electorate to vote for her.

Given the huge turnout for the communist and crypto-communist parties outlined above, this is a nearly impossible task.

While voting in the second round may be unpredictable, it is however likely that about half of the “conservative” vote will go to Le Pen, while the rest—from hardline communist to “right wing” will go to Macron.

This means that the most likely result will see Macron polling over 20 million votes, with Le Pen’s total creeping up to around 11 million or so.


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