A chilling report published today by the Ministry of Economic Development (MED) is warning of potentially “catastrophic unknown consequences” relating to President Putin’s issuance to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) of orders to initiate what is commonly known within the Kremlin as the “Samson Defense” designed to crash the Russian ruble, while at the same time insuring the economic collapse of both the United States and European Union.
The CBR’s “Samson Defense” is a Russian monetary strategy designed to economically mirror Israel’s feared “Samson Option” deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a “last resort” if military attacks threaten its existence.
In Putin’s action against the US-EU, this report says, the CBR’s stunning move earlier today in raising the interest rate to 17% from 10.5% has had its desired consequence as the ruble plunged more than 20% and to date and has now lost about 57% of its value versus the US dollar since the start of the year, which exceeds the 36% plunge related to the 2008 global economic crisis.
Most importantly to note about this currency plunge, however, this report notes, are that Russia’s fiscal domestic accounts are denominated in depreciating rubles and its oil exports are invoiced in an appreciating US dollar, meaning that the fiscal blow from lower oil prices will be cushioned by a weak ruble, and was a strategy that Putin warned about earlier when he stated that the Federation was braced for a “catastrophic” slump in oil prices.
Equally as important to note, MED analysts in this report say, the CBR agreed to lend money this week against 625 billion rubles (over $10 billion) of bonds freshly printed by oil giant Rosneft allowing it to hoard its export dollars and meet a $10 billion loan repayment later this month, and another $4 billion in February.
As to how catastrophically low oil prices can fall, this report continues, it notes that OPEC has already stated that they are willing to push prices as low as $40 a barrel in their bid to take on Russia and US shale, a stance which began this past September when the Obama regime reached a secret deal with Saudi Arabia in order to flood the world with oil to collapse the Russian economy, but which has now backfired on them as the Saudis seek to bankrupt US shale producers too.
With 15% of US shale gas producers are already losing money because of the Obama regimes secret deal with Saudi Arabia, this report warns, up to half of all of Americas shale operations will face financial ruin if oil prices slip below $55 a barrel leaving millions without jobs in an already collapsing economy.
To the ability of the Federation withstanding a “Samson Defense” economic war against the US and EU, this report says, it should be noted that the current debt of the US stands at a staggering $18 trillion [an amount so large it is now mathematically impossible to ever pay back] while the EU is, likewise, at a equally staggering amount of €12 trillion ($15 trillion).
Compared to the combined US-EU debt of $30 trillion, this report notes, Russia has only $678 billion in foreign debt, has very little outstanding debt and its public debt to gross domestic product ratio is 10% – an excellent figure compared to the EU’s dismal average ratio of 90.9 and the US’s 71.8%.
Likewise to note, MED analysts in this report say, is that while Russia’s debt to GDP is roughly 14%, the EU currently stands at 90.9%, the US at 80.2%, and Japan’s at 227%, meaning, simply, that the Federation can withstand any economic hardship the Western alliance puts against it.
Also, and as independent analysts confirm, Moscow‘s coffers are well-filled, giving Russia the durability to weather a double external shock – tanking oil prices and Western sanctions.
The Finance Ministry controls two sovereign wealth funds, which contained some $172 billion as of December. The money, held in foreign currency, has been accumulated during the past 15 years of high oil and gas revenues and has been earmarked as a piggy bank, primarily for the pension system.
Additionally, the CBR’s overall foreign currency reserves stood at a healthy $416.2 billion dollars in early December.
And most critical to note about the “Samson Defense”, this report concludes, is that Russia will not cut its oil production against the headwinds of collapsing prices, and may, indeed, increase its amount as the plunging ruble, combined with a rising US dollar, actually makes Federation oil the most affordable in the world.
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