Scientists warns that a dry and hot weather phenomenon known as ‘El Nino’ is likely to hit most parts of the earth in the second half of this year.
Researchers in Germany announced that the phenomenon could spew out huge amounts of heat this year, on summer 2014.
While the menacing El Nino weather pattern appears to be ready to blow massive amounts of heat into the atmosphere, there is a 75 per cent chance that 2014 will be the hottest on record, they explains.
They claim that their method grants them to forecast disruptive El Nino events a year in advance as it correctly predicted the absence of El Nino events over the past two years, according to a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The new method was followed by a team of Justus Liebig University in Giessen, Germany including Armin Bunde and his colleagues.
The team observed the atmospheric temperatures in all areas of the Pacific Ocean instead of analysing the water temperature in a specific area of the ocean.
“We hope the forecast could allow countries to make develop better strategies that can counter the devastating effects such as wild fires,” researchers stated.
While many experts do not agree with the German researchers’ methods, they say the methods the researchers employed are outdated.
This approach does not look at the physics of the seas or atmosphere, but only looked for statistical patterns in temperature, they say.
“The risk of an El Nino event in the second half of 2014 has increased, but it’s certainly not guaranteed at this point in time,” said Andrew Watkins, Supervisor, Climate Prediction at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.
An El Nino occurs when equatorial Pacific waters are unusually warm. It can change ocean and wind currents across the globe.
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